‘We will be fine’: Nobel victor sees hope in coronavirus stats

Nobel Laureate Correctly Predicts Coronavirus Slowdown in China, Foresees Similar Outcomes Around the World

Michael Levitt, who won the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2013, analyzed 78 nations that have reported over 50 new COVID-19 cases every day and said he has seen "signs of recovery", Israeli daily Calcalist reported.

"This suggests that the rate of increase in a number of the deaths will slow down even more over the next week", Levitt predicted on February 1, which was widely shared around Chinese social media. When looking at the statistics on February 1, Levitt says there are 1,800 new cases per day in the Hubei area.

China is now fighting to stop new waves of the infection.

Levitt said that social distancing measures will help slow the spread of the virus enough to keep hospitals from getting overwhelmed, and said that the media caused unnecessary panic with constant updates on the total number of cases and the various celebrities who have tested positive for COVID-19.

Although he acknowledged that his figures are messy, he forecasted that, even with incomplete data, a consistent decline in the number of cases can indicate that there's some factor at work that is not just noise in the numbers, mentioned by Yahoo News.

The laureate had already started studying the number of coronavirus cases around the world back in January this year.

Levitt, who received the 2013 Nobel Prize in Chemistry for developing multi-scale models for models for complex chemical systems, foresees a similar outcome not only in the U.S. but in rest of the world.

"What we need is to control the panic".

There are some epidemiologists warning the USA could be at various levels of lockdown for months, or even years, but Levitt said the data he's looking at just doesn't support such a desperate situation, particularly in places that have implemented depressive measures like "social distancing". "This is not the time to go out drinking with your buddies", he warns. "The goal is not to reach the situation the cruise ship experienced".

Levitt said that overreaction could trigger another crisis, with lost jobs and hopelessness around.

"People need to be considered heroes for announcing they have this virus", he said. So, fact remains we can't take it all that easy.For Levitt, the target for health systems has got to be "better early detection" - not just through testing but perhaps also with bodytemperature surveillance - and immediate social isolation.

"Despite the virus having a higher fatality rate than the flu, it's "not the end of the world. the real situation is not almost as awful as they make it out to be", Levitt said". However, most people have an extremely low risk of death in a two-month period, and that risk remains extremely low even when doubled.

"The real situation is not as almost as awful as they make it out to be", Levitt told the newspaper.

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