NOAA’s winter forecast for JH looks warm and dry

"From about, maybe NY and northward, that's all above a 40 percent confidence, so that's between a 40 and 50 percent chance that temperatures will be above average", says Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in Maryland. During the winter, typical El Nino conditions in the USA can include wetter-than-average precipitation in the South and drier conditions in parts of the North.

Eric Kurth, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service's Sacramento office, said that although the north coast can expect average precipitation this winter, it will be an increase from the drier-than-average conditions of past year, which may help clear up some short-term drought conditions in those regions.

No place in the expected to experience cooler-than-average temperatures, according to NOAA. This change in sea surface temperature has a wide range of effects on seasonal weather patterns across the globe, but in the US, an El Niño typically means warmer winter temperatures, and higher levels of precipitation in certain regions of the country.

In the winter, the NOAA said, typical El Nino conditions include wetter-than-average precipitation in the southern US and drier conditions in parts of the northern U.S.

Above-average rainfall is most likely northern Florida and southern Georgia this winter.

Drought conditions are anticipated to improve in areas throughout Arizona and New Mexico, southern sections of Utah and Colorado, the coastal Pacific Northwest and the Central Plains.

The NOAA's Climate Prediction Center posts its three-month outlook once a month. The next update will be available on November 15.

"Even on a warming planet", he said, "it doesn't mean winter goes away and it's never cold again".

In the U.S. Winter Outlook for December through February, above-average temperatures are most likely across the northern and western U.S., Alaska and Hawaii.

The winter outlook from NOAA calls for a wetter than normal season in the far southwest corner of the state.

"Contrary to the stories storming the web, our time-tested, long-range formula is pointing toward a very long, cold, and snow-filled winter".

"Snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance".



Other news