IMD predicts normal rainfall, at 97% of LPA

Sashastra Seema Bal personnel on election duty sip tender coconuts to beat the heat at Majestic in Bengaluru on Saturday | Shriram B N

Probability that rainfall will be deficient (less than 90% of 50 year average) is 14%, the IMD said.

Hoping that the monsoon will be constant and not sporadic, IMD said that region based forecast will be available only during the second assessment in June and the date of the monsoon's onset into Kerala will be announced in mid May.

Rainfall is likely to be normal during the June-to-September south-west monsoon season, the government's weather office said on Monday.

IMD in October 2017 said that while 72 per cent of the total area of the country received normal rainfall, 13 per cent area got excess rainfall and 15 per cent deficient seasonal rainfall.

Past year also, there was a normal monsoon forecast by the IMD. The IMD categorises rainfall in the 96 per cent to 104 per cent LPA range as normal while the rain immediately below that, it is considered below normal.

For generating the forecast for the 2018 southwest Monsoon season rainfall, atmospheric and Oceanic initial conditions of April 2018 were used. A moderate La Nina condition had developed in the equatorial Pacific during previous year. The warming results in below-par rainfall across the subcontinent and South Asia.

Why good rain is vital for Indian economy and what is its significance in the current political landscape? The forecast of a normal monsoon will enthuse the farming sector.

A normal monsoon will not only aid agriculture growth but could have a positive impact on the overall rural economy crucial for the ruling BJP government as it faces critical state elections followed by the big National Polls in 2019.

On April 4, private weather forecast agency Skymet Weather had released similar forecast that the four-month long Southwest Monsoon which gives about 70 percent of India's annual rainfall, would be normal.

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