United States professor who predicted Trump's big win says 'he will be impeached'

Professor Allan Lichtman has successfully predicted the results of US presidential elections for 30 years

The victory of Republican candidate Donald Trump in Tuesday's presidential election over Democratic rival Hillary Clinton had surprised many prognosticators.

Allan Lichtman has been making predictions about the USA presidential elections since 1980 and on each occasion, he has been proven correct. But what The Washington Post didn't report on initially was that Lichtman also predicted that Trump would be impeached.

"I'm going to make another prediction", he told the Washington Post. He feels that the GOP leaders will not allow Trump to carry on as they feel that he can not be controlled. "He's unpredictable. They'd love to have Pence an absolutely down-the-line, conservative, controllable Republican", he said. He said Trump would soon give an opportunity for impeachment either by doing something that endangers national security or because "it helps his pocketbook".

He says that within a year of being sworn in as the USA president he will be impeached by a republican dominated Congress which will opt for Mike Pence. He authored the book "Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016" which developed a historically based system of keys to predicting election results.

At the time, Lichtman's system was turning out six false statements, pointing to a Trump victory.

Lichtman's presidential predictions use 13 true-false questions. They are guided by the thesis that American presidential elections are primarily judgments on the strength and performance of the party holding the White House, in this year the Democrats.

He was asked by The News about the timeframe for his latest prediction which he made in an interview with the Washington Post. "Even the analysis of polls by Nate Silver and others which claimed a probable Clinton victory with from more than 70 per cent to 99 per cent certainty are mere compilations that are no better than the underlying polls".

His predictions have picked the next president correctly in all of those elections but 2000, when he picked Al Gore, who won the popular vote. He considers poll analyst Nate Silver as only a clerk, not a scientific analyst.

The stunning prediction is similar to what an op-ed columnist for the New York Times David Brooks said about Trump's future within the next year.



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